US midterms: Could Texas break decades of Republican dominance and reshape Senate?

Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won re-election in 1988. The last Democrat to serve, Bob Krueger, briefly held Bentsen’s seat by appointment before leaving office in June 1993.

Now, more than three decades later, Democrat James Talarico is threatening to break that Republican hold. Recent public polls have generally shown him narrowly ahead of, or tied with, Republican Ken Paxton, although many of those leads fall within the margin of error.

A Democratic victory would mark a historic departure for Texas. But for some voters, the election turns on something more immediate than political history: how much it costs to get through the day.

"Everything is so expensive. To eat, it costs like $30 or $20, just to eat and feed yourself. Every day," Houston resident John McCary tells TRT World in a TV interview.

Another Houston resident, Heather Bromfield, describes the same pressure.

"Everything has gotten a lot more expensive… It's extremely expensive compared to a few years ago," she says.

Their concerns offer a glimpse of the household pressures surrounding a race now drawing national attention. With Republicans defending a narrow Senate majority, the outcome in Texas could help determine who controls the chamber.

Why is Texas important?

Donald Trump carried Texas by roughly 13.7 percentage points in 2024. Just two years later, the close Senate contest is testing how much of that Republican advantage Paxton can retain against Talarico.

Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary contest, leaving the party to reunite after an internal battle while defending a seat long considered secure. For Democrats, that creates an opening, though competitive polls are no guarantee of victory.

The Washington Post identified Texas as one of seven states central to the Senate battle. Its emergence as a battleground complicates Republican calculations, putting pressure on the party to protect its own territory as it competes elsewhere.

Winning Texas also requires reaching voters across sharply different communities. Its major metropolitan centres, including Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, sit alongside fast-growing suburbs and vast rural areas. A large Latino electorate is central to both parties’ efforts, with neither candidate able to take its support for granted.

The longer-term significance lies in what a Democratic breakthrough might reveal. Would it reflect the particular strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates, or suggest a broader opening for the party?

One election would not settle that question. But it could change where both parties spend their money, recruit candidates and believe they can win.

The pivotal state

Texas also occupies a decisive place in an election model that uses prediction markets to assess the battle for the Senate.

In the analysis shared with TRT World, Yale economics professor Ray Fair ranks 14 contested states using market prices. Under his assumptions, Democrats need to win eight of those contests to secure a majority, with Texas sitting at the threshold.

"According to the ranking assumption, if the Democrats win Texas, they will win all the states above it," Fair says.

That makes Texas the pivotal state in his model: the estimated chance of a Democratic Senate majority matches the estimated chance of a Talarico victory.

The relationship rests on an assumption, however, rather than an electoral rule. Results need not follow the markets’ ranking, and Democrats could win some states while losing others placed above them.

Market prices have also shifted since Fair’s quoted snapshot. By late October, Kalshi and Polymarket were generally pricing a Talarico victory at around 70 percent, above the earlier readings in the low-to-mid 60s.

Those figures reflect market expectations, fluctuate continuously and should not be confused with polling leads.

For Republicans, the contest tests their ability to keep a familiar stronghold within reach. For Democrats, it tests whether a promising coalition can deliver an actual statewide victory.

Beyond November, both parties will be studying whether the forces making Texas competitive can travel elsewhere in the South.

TRT World / Noureldein Ghanem — TRT World

Photo: Reuters