Lula narrowly leads Flavio Bolsonaro in polls ahead of Brazil's presidential vote

A series of major opinion polls published have placed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on the eve of Sunday's first-round presidential election, pointing towards an extraordinarily tight race in a likely second-round runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger.Under Brazilian electoral regulations, if no presidential contender secures more than 50 percent of valid votes — a calculation that strictly excludes blank and null ballots — on Sunday, the two leading candidates will advance to a head-to-head runoff on October 25.A nationwide survey conducted by the MDA Institute for the National Transport Confederation (CNT) placed Lula at 47.8 percent of valid votes, compared to 42.1 percent for Bolsonaro.In a simulated second round, theCNT/MDApoll recorded Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47.3 percent to 43.1 percent.The survey sampled 2,007 individuals between September 30, and October 2, carrying a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.A separate survey from Datafolha recorded Lula securing 45% of valid votes in the first round against 42 percent for Bolsonaro, with Caiado at 4percent, Santos and Cury each at 3 percent, and Zema at 1 percent.In a projected runoff,Datafolhaplaced Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 46 percent—a statistical tie within the survey's two-percentage-point margin of error.Datafolhainterviewed 4,006 respondents across October 2–3.A tight battleMeanwhile, a poll byQuaestshowed the tightest opening round, placing Lula at 46 percent of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 45 percent, with Cury, Santos, and Caiado each registering 3 percent.In a simulated second-round scenario,Quaestplaced Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 44 percent to Lula's 42 percent.The poll surveyed 3,702 individuals across October 2–3 and had a two-percentage-point margin of error.Lula is locked in a tight battle against right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed 2022 re-election bid.Brazil’s president is seeking a fourth and final term in office, warning voters that the country’s sovereignty is at stake amid pressure from US President Donald Trump.Trump has not endorsedFlavio Bolsonaro, but has said he is "very closely" watching the Brazilian election.