US exports more crude to Nigeria than it imports for first time in history

The United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria in February and March, as crude demand on the US East Coast slowed due to refinery maintenance and the Dangote refinery drove up Nigeria's demand for inputs, the US Energy Information Administration said in a note on Tuesday.

This is the first time that the US has exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported. Nigeria is generally considered a source for US crude oil imports, ranking ninth last year.

Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery – the largest in Africa, located on the outskirts of Lagos – began processing crude in January 2024 after years of delays. The refinery is set to reach full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day this year, according to the EIA.

Gross US exports of crude to Nigeria touched 111,000 barrels per day in February and 169,000 barrels per day in March. Imports, which were at 133,000 barrels per day in January, dropped to 54,000 barrels per day and 72,000 barrels per day in February and March respectively.

Permanent realignment unlikely

The decline in imports is largely due to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery New Jersey, per the EIA. However, imports increased later in the year as the Bayway refinery resumed normal operations in April, and Dangote underwent some unplanned maintenance.

This trend seems more a snapshot of a very fluid market, rather than a permanent realignment, according to Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

"The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year. But going forward, with the refinery now aiming to secure domestic flows, and probably looking at other crude grades, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the US to Nigeria will persist," Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said.