UN warns new famine risk haunts war-torn Sudan with El Niño-driven drought

Across Sudan, farmers who have struggled to harvest their crops since a civil war flared in 2023 are now battling a new enemy that could plunge the nation back into famine, according to UN officials and aid experts.

El Niño, the climate pattern threatening parts of Africa with floods, is bringing higher temperatures and drought to Sudan, where pockets of famine have already emerged during more than three years of conflict, mainly in areas under siege.

Parched conditions are hurting crops and livestock across the southern region where rain-fed agriculture produces much of Sudan's food,along with more than two dozen farmers, UN officials and aid experts tell Reuters.

"The risk of famine is growing in many conflict-affected areas of Sudan, with the impact of El Niño-induced drought compounding already dire conditions," the United Nations-backed global hunger monitor, the IPC, wrote in an October 12 alert.

Low rainfall

Rainfall in July to September, the peak rainy season, was the lowest in more than three decades across the country, United States Geological Survey (USGS) data shows. In North Darfur state in the west, it was the lowest since 1984 - the same year a famine devastated Sudan and Ethiopia. In North Kordofan state in the central region, it was the lowest since 1990, while in Gedaref state in the southeast it was the lowest since 1991.

In June, the IPC said 5.1 million people in Sudan faced severe hunger. The IPC is currently updating the numbers. They had been expected to fall once harvesting started in November and December, helped by a lull in fighting in some areas. But the El Niño-driven drought is now expected to push them up.

The UN World Food Programme forecasts an additional 350,000 people will experience severe hunger by the end of 2026, rising to 1.2 million more by August 2027, the WFP head of programme for Sudan, Samuel Clendon, told Reuters in October, citing figures shared with donors but not publicised widely.

The worst-hit areas are Darfur and the Kordofan region, the WFP said.

Limited resources

The WFP has focused on delivering food to the 5 million most needy people, but it says it cannot reach all of them. For those it can reach, it has cut rations to stretch limited resources.

As of October 17, the WFP had $276 million to fund its Sudan operation, less than half of last year's budget. It says it needs an extra $134 million to tackle hunger caused by drought.

The decline of both aid and harvests at once is a “recipe for disaster,” Carl Skau, acting executive director of the WFP, told Reuters in Cairo after a trip to Darfur, where he said he had seen the impact of drought.

Temperatures in Gedaref ranged between 7 and 9 degrees above the historic average for October 20, the Reuters Climate Monitor showed.

Sudanese Agriculture Minister Esmat Qureshi told a news conference on October 8 in Khartoum that this year's harvest would be lower but "not significantly less than last year's."