Analyst: US Senate battleground races will tighten even as polls favour Democrats

Washington DC — Millions of Americans are voting in pivotal midterm elections, with Democrats hoping to seize control of both chambers of Congress and Republicans attempting to fend off a defeat that could see Democrats push against US President Donald Trump's agenda.

Seizing the House from Republicans would enable Democrats to stall Trump's legislative agenda and launch inquiries, and by taking control of Senate, Democrats could jeopardise Trump's judicial and senior appointments.

All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, along with governorships in 36 states, in an election marked by falling approval ratings for Trump, rising public anger over the cost of living and the conflict involving Iran, and polls showing Democrats leading in key battleground states, including deeply red Texas and Kansas.

While US House battlegrounds span the country, attention focuses on key Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.

Republicans have mostly campaigned on social issues, while Trump has placed himself at the centre of the elections, urging voters to act as if he were on the ballot.

Key Senate battleground contests are expected to be considerably tighter than recent public opinion polls suggest, Syracuse University political science professor Grant Reeher told TRT World, noting that Democratic leads in several critical races may narrow sharply ahead of polling day.

While several surveys have indicated Democratic candidates holding leads ranging between 4 and 10 percent, Grant points out that such projections frequently overestimate margins in the final stages of campaigning.

He cited a combination of late-stage campaign dynamics, adverse news coverage impacting select Democratic contenders, and methodological difficulties within polling algorithms in accurately identifying likely voters.

"There's a natural tightening at the end; a couple of the Democrats have had problematic news stories in the last few days; and the polls may not be employing the right algorithms to identify the most likely voters, a moving target in recent election cycles," Reeher observed.

Uphill task

Midterm elections typically favour the opposition party, and the president’s party has lost House seats in the vast majority of modern midterms. Flipping both chambers is less common, but has occurred, for example, in 1946, 1994, and 2006.

In 2026 midterms, Democrats need three additional House seats and a net four in the Senate to seize control of both chambers from the Republicans. They must also defend competitive seats, including in Michigan, where Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a shocking move.

Over 57 million Americans have already cast ballots ahead of Tuesday, reflecting strong voter engagement.

Even as polls show Democrats ahead in key battleground races, they can underestimate one party's support. Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping their voters turn out in force on Election Day.

Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress and Republicans holding the White House would create a divided government for the final two years of President Trump’s term, through January 2029.

They would control the agenda, leadership positions, and all committees across both chambers, including those with subpoena power.

A Democratic-controlled House could initiate impeachment proceedings by a simple majority, while a Democratic Senate could block, delay, or force compromises on Trump's nominees, including federal judges and any Supreme Court vacancy.

Even in the event of a decisive Democratic victory across both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Reeher highlighted that enacting major legislative initiatives would remain an uphill task.

"If the Democrats sweep both the House and the Senate, it will still be tough for Democrats to push legislation through to the president’s desk, because of the filibuster rule in the Senate, which I expect to remain in place, since it was not removed during the first Trump presidency," the Syracuse University professor argued.

Beyond legislative bottlenecks, he cautioned that pursuing another impeachment effort against Trump could pose substantial political risks for the Democratic Party, especially in the 2028 presidential elections.

"It might also be politically irresistible for the Democrats to attempt another impeachment, which I would expect will backfire against them in the 2028 presidential election, an impeachment will have no chance of getting the required 2/3 majority in the Senate to take Trump out of office," he said.

"If they can avoid that misstep, then they can potentially take their majority status into the presidential election, and go in with strength," Reeher explained.

He added that the party's prospects in 2028 would ultimately hinge on selecting a moderate presidential nominee capable of appealing to the broader electorate rather than aligning strictly with the party's left flank.

TRT World / Baba Umar — TRT World

Photo: AFP