'All weapons on the table to protect Kaliningrad': Why the Baltic exclave matters so much to Russia

With the Ukraine war, Russia-West tensions have escalated across the Baltic region, where Moscow has a strategic territory: Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave with no land connection to the mainland Russia.In recent weeks, the Kremlin has become increasingly alarmed by the Western alliance’s naval manoeuvres in the Baltic, repeatedly warning that Moscow would respond with full force to any potential attack on Kaliningrad, including, potentially, the use of nuclear weapons."If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation, in this case we are talking about Kaliningrad but possibly some other territories, of course the issue of use by the Russian Federation of all arms at the disposal of our country will inevitably and immediately be on the agenda," Russian President Vladimir Putinsaidduring a speech last week.In a recent diplomatic noteto the Western alliance, Moscow also described any blockade of the exclave as a "dangerous and reckless course" carrying "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict", which would trigger "Russian strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance's member states right from the outset”.But why is Kaliningrad so important to Russia?“Kaliningrad is part of Russian territory and as such is important by default,” Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, tellsTRT World.Sometimes described as the Kremlin’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad holds significant strategic and military importance for Russia.Baltiysk hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet’s main base, and Moscow has also deployed tactical Iskander missiles in the exclave.In May 2022, Russian forces in Kaliningrad simulated strikes with nuclear-capable Iskander missiles against mock military targets, including airfields and command posts.But for Moscow, its significance begins with something even more fundamental: sovereignty.Russian sovereignty matters to the Kremlin more than anything else, according to Sergei Markov, a former Putin advisor.“Kaliningrad is important only for one reason because it’s part of Russia,” Markov tellsTRT World.On Sunday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson,underlinedthat any territory, includingparts of Ukraine it claims to have annexed, will be protected with the country’s “entire available arsenal of weapons”.“Even if it were half a percent, or one-hundredth of a percent - this is the Russian Federation.

There is nothing to discuss here.”Strategic regionBeyond the question of Russian sovereignty, Kaliningrad also serves important economic and transportation interests for Moscow.Itsice-free portgives Russia year-round access to the Baltic Sea, unlike ports such as St Petersburg, where winter conditions can restrict navigation.But Kaliningrad’s strategic value comes with a geographical disadvantage.The territory became part of the Soviet Union following the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it lost its land connection with the rest of Russia as Lithuania and Latvia became independent states, leaving the Russian exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.“It is an exclave between Lithuania and Poland and as such is more vulnerable than any other part of Russian territory.

In particular, access over land through Lithuania is already effectively blocked; the sea route over the Baltic Sea can be blocked quite easily, too,” Sokov tellsTRT World.Yet the same geography also gives Moscow a strategically important military position inside the Baltic region.The exclave hosts a major Russian naval base and weapons systems, including missiles with a range of around 500 kilometres, placing almost all of Poland and much of the Baltic Sea within reach, according to Sokov.For Russia, Kaliningrad is “strategically vital” as “a forward platform for air defence, electronic warfare, and power projection into northern and central Europe,” Denys Kolesnyk, a Paris-based strategic intelligence consultant, tellsTRT World.But its position deep inside NATO territory also leaves it exposed.Kolesnyk says Kaliningrad’s “isolated geographical position” between Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members, makes it “highly vulnerable and in the event of an armed conflict it would likely be one of the first Russian territories to be overwhelmed by superior allied forces”.That vulnerability makes access to Kaliningrad particularly important.The exclave is separated from Russia’s ally Belarus bythe Suwalki Gap, a narrow stretch of territory along the Polish-Lithuanian border that has long been regarded as a strategic pressure point between Russia and NATO.Special “transit arrangements” allow Russian citizens and cargo to cross Lithuanian territory to Kaliningrad and are anchored in Lithuania’s 2004 EU accession framework, policy analyst Juraj Majcin tellsTRT World.These arrangements give Moscow “grounds to challenge restrictions imposed by Vilnius on national security grounds,” he adds.Overall, Kaliningrad provides Russia with “leverage over NATO and the EU”, according to Majcin.

But its strategic value is inseparable from its vulnerability.“Nuclear threats concerning Kaliningrad can therefore be understood as an attempt to compensate for that vulnerability,” he says.Kaliningrad’s strategic importance, however, predates its role in Russia’s confrontation with NATO.Long before Putin and Russia’s nuclear threats against the West, Kaliningrad carried significant weight in European history.Moscow named the region after Mikhail Kalinin, a communist Bolshevik revolutionary leader, but it had previously been the capital of the old Prussian kingdom.Before Soviet rule, the region’s capital, founded by the Teutonic Knights, a German-origin Catholic crusading order, was known as Konigsberg.For centuries, Konigsberg was the capital of the Prussian monarchy, the predecessor state of present-day Germany.

In 1701, the German royal family moved its capital from this Baltic city to Berlin.Russia-West equationMoscow has signalled that any Western blockade of Kaliningrad would be unacceptable and could trigger a military response, including the potential use of nuclear weapons.While much of the focus has been on whether the Ukraine war could lead to a nuclear confrontation, Russia-West tensions in the Baltic have largely been underestimated, according to Markov.He argues that the West, seeing sanctions against Russia as ineffective, might turn to other forms of pressure, including a blockade of Kaliningrad.This possibility, he says, explains the Kremlin’s strong reaction.“European countries opened the door for a nuclear war,” Markov says, describing the current tensions in the Baltic as an “extremely dangerous situation”.Western analysts, however, assess the risk differently.While a blockade of Kaliningrad is theoretically possible, nothing indicates that such a move is likely under current circumstances, according to Kolesnyk.He sees such a step as viable only in response to a Russian attack on Poland or the Baltic states.

Russia, however, says it has no intention of attacking NATO territory.From a logistical standpoint, the Western alliance could “find it easier to disrupt Kaliningrad's sea and air links than its land connections through the Suwalki Gap”, Kolesnyk says.But “the absence of political will, the demands of alliance cohesion and the certainty of a severe Russian response, albeit non-nuclear, make any deliberate peacetime blockade improbable,” he adds.Referring toa 2025 NATO statement, Majcin says that the calculation could change in the event of a Russian attack on allied territory.NATO could then act against Kaliningrad to degrade Russia’s ability to threaten the Suwałki Gap and reduce the risk of the Baltic states being cut off by land from the rest of the alliance.