AI could widen economic gap between rich and poor Commonwealth nations by $360B

Artificial intelligence risks deepening the gap between rich and poorer nations, with a new study calculating a $360 billion difference in potential economic gains between the Commonwealth countries best prepared for the technology and those lagging behind.

The Ayre Index, unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, examined the conditions facing 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 member states.

Only 15 countries met the index’s benchmark for youth AI readiness. Under the study’s middle scenario, AI could lift their combined economic output by $389.2 billion after 10 years, compared with $29.2 billion for the other 41 countries.

The $360 billion gap is twice the size of the $174 billion in development aid given by the world's major donor countries last year.

Singapore topped the rankings, followed by Malta, Australia, the UK and Canada. Malawi and Lesotho ranked lowest. Of the Commonwealth’s 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria met the benchmark.

Gaps in access, skills and jobs

The research suggests that installing networks does not automatically create opportunity.

In Togo, 4G coverage reaches almost everyone, yet fewer than half of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, electricity reaches a fifth of the population.

There are gaps even where enthusiasm is high. About 90 percent of young Nigerians surveyed expected to use AI for work or education within a year, but Nigeria scored just 0.8 out of 10 on measures of conventional digital capability.

Entrepreneur and philanthropist Calvin Ayre, the founder of the think tank behind the index, said: "AI is going to change how we work, how we do business, and how wealth is created. Nobody can afford to be complacent."

Governments, he said, must give young people the skills and opportunities to succeed.

Even meeting the benchmark is no guarantee of work: South Africa qualified, but unemployment stood at 46.3 percent among its young labour force.

The study drew on 1,128 sources but also exposed how little comparable evidence exists about young people's actual AI capabilities in some countries.

Its central warning is that access alone is insufficient. Skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment, and support for entrepreneurs will determine whether AI creates new businesses and better jobs — or reinforces existing economic divides.

TRT World / AP — TRT World / AP

Photo: Reuters